So it looks bad. Real bad.

But remember, all is not lost. There are still choices that can be made moving toward a better, or at least slightly less disastrous, future.

And even if our "leaders" refuse to make those sensible, moral choices, some of us can and will make them on our own, occupying pockets of relative stability, peace, and justice in the rough years ahead.

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The super-rich are hoarding wealth while public services are cut and the planet burns.

Its time to tax them and end extreme wealth.

Ive just taken action with War on want will you join me

Lower revenues, pricier loans: how flooding in Europe affects firms and the financial system they depend on

Poll: Two-thirds of Canadians favour developing clean energy over fossil fuels, while 85% wish to maintain or increase federal climate action

We will shoot past the 1.5C target, averaged over 20 years, by the end of this decade. Theres no way to prevent it.

After that, to avoid 2C, 3C, or even 4C, it will take a massive and dare we say highly unlikely global effort to unite in slashing carbon emissions at an unprecedented rate.

For global average temperatures to stabilize at less than 1.5C above preindustrial levels, humanity needs to achieve 43% greenhouse gas emissions cuts by 2030. But progress on climate action has stagnated in recent years, global GHG emissions are yet to peak, and our remaining carbon budget is dwindling.

Above 1.5C of warming, we risk passing critical tipping points in natural Earth systems, triggering self-perpetuating changes that could shift the planet out of the habitable zone for humanity and for life as we know it. Even with rapid, large-scale action on climate change, crossing some tipping points may now be unavoidable.

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Norway is one of the four nations Oil Change International is calling "Planet Wreckers" ... Please support our fight to push for a phase out of Norwegian oil and gas. Norway needs an exit strategy!

16th of June 2025
430.62 ppm CO2 in the air

Chart shows current value and values for the same day 20 years back

Surpassing 1.5C is a given. It's unavoidable. The only question now is how far beyond that we will go.

The unprecedented warming that began in 2023, continued through 2024, and extended into 2025 has caused surprise and alarm. Scientists still dont fully understand the cause, but some fear it signals the global climate is transitioning into a new state of accelerated warming.

2024 was the first full calendar year to exceed 1.5C above preindustrial levels. A recent projection finds it likely Earth will see a 20-year average warming of 1.5C by as early as 2029, exceeding a key Paris accord goal, and which could trigger self-perpetuating changes pushing Earths climate into a less habitable state.

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The Guardian: Nasa data reveals dramatic rise in intensity of weather events

Extreme events such as and are becoming more frequent, longer-lasting and more severe...

Man With Sign, June 17, 02025

It's a pleasantly cool morning as I walk up to Roosevelt Circle, arriving at 7:31 entirely thanks to impassable oncoming traffic at the rotary. I greet Craige and set up my signs, today holding up CLIMATE CHAOS INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE NEXT PANDEMIC. The weather apps suggest that it's going to rain, but it doesn't happen.

1/

Flourish or flounder: How wildfires affect Boreal forest wildlife
There's an entire cycle of life that helps some wildlife thrive when the boreal forest burns, but experts say climate change and human activity have led to larger, more intense wildfires, exacerbating the negative effects on some species.

Don't blame people. Don't blame the whole world. Blame those who actually deserve it.

Blame the leaders of business and government in the world's richest nations. They are the ones actively destroying our climate and environment.

Four wealthy nations the United States, Canada, Norway, and Australia account for the majority of planned oil and gas expansion over the next decade, according to new data published by Oil Change International.

The analysis, titled 'Planet Wreckers', notes that if those four Global North nations stopped their planned oil and gas extraction, 32 billion tons of carbon pollution would stay in the ground instead of being burned and released into the atmosphere where they fuel planetary heating. That's the equivalent of three times the annual global emissions created by burning coal.

"A handful of the world's richest nations remain intent on leading us into disaster. This is not just hypocrisy. It is a death sentence for communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis," Oil Change International's Romain Ioualalen said in a statement.

"It is sickening that countries with the highest incomes and outsized historical responsibility for causing the climate crisis are planning massive oil and gas expansion with no regard for the lives and livelihoods at stake," Ioualalen added.

Four-day heat health alert issued for most of as temperatures set to soar to 32C

(13/13)

Cf atomickermstdn.ca : "Pas de , pas de preuves, pas de vrit, pas de dmocratie".

Climate justice activists and Indigenous representatives staged a protest on Tuesday, June 17, 2025, inside the UN climate talks in Bonn, where Brazils COP30 presidency is seeking to position the country as a global climate leader

Over the past ten years, the tax system in advanced economies has undergone significant transformations caused by the simultaneous impact of several factors: the digitalization of business, globalization, the accelerating climate crisis, the tightening of the competitive environment, as well as the growth of inequality and social tension

Sleep apnoea cases may double this century due to global warming, researchers warn

Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The
-Change

May was the second warmest May on record globally

1 new picture from Copernicus

17.06.2025 - 14:00 Uhr
Chart des deutschen Strommix ber die letzten 6 Stunden.

Exposure to artificial light at night and higher temperatures can extend the growing season of urban plants by up to three weeks. This puts additional strain on the energy and water balance of trees and shrubs that are already under stress. In Europe, leaves sprout particularly earlier than in other global regions. Read more about the study published in Nature Cities yesterday:

Have a nice day!

Here we are again, earlier than ever, melting down in a steaming 35+ degrees Celsius. So it's time for our yearly reminder : a folding fan in bamboo and paper cost a few hundred yen, weights nothing, last virtually forever, never get out of power, looks infinitely more beautiful, moves way more air hence better cool its user, and prevent her/him from looking like a stupid asshole whining about the heat while directly contributing to make it worst with a plastic electric bullshit fan !!!
Picture: my Japanese fan, bought 20+ years ago, used every year since, zero cost, zero complaint.

- Global Drought Outlook - "Key figures: 40% of the worlds land area faces increasingly frequent and severe droughts 3% - 7.5% annual increase in the economic cost of an average drought episode 35% minimum projected increase in drought-related economic losses by 2035" - OECD (2025), Global Drought Outlook: Trends, Impacts and Policies to Adapt to a Drier World, OECD Publishing, Paris,

Understanding data uncertainty philosophically

A fascinating preprint came across my this morning1. It caught my eye because it came with an aphorism:

Data without uncertainty estimates are empty, uncertainty estimates without data are blind

I like a good aphorism2.

The preprint is and I nearly missed the link. Im very glad I didnt as it brings into focus some things Ive been struggling fuzzily with over the past decade() without every being very clear on how it all fits together. Its clearer now.

The paper takes a philosophical look at uncertainty estimates in scientific data and they introduce five important but underappreciated philosophical theses about uncertainty estimates for data which are:

1. they are substantive epistemic products
2. they are fallible
3. they can be iteratively improved
4. they should be developed and judged in terms of their
   adequacy-for-purpose3
5. they are essential for judging the adequacy of data.

They illustrate their thesis using GISTEMP as an example, so really the paper couldnt have been more perfect for me.

It takes as a starting point, the (what better place to start4) and contrasts its uncertainty approach with the previously prevailing error approach5 but is here expressed far more clearly. The uncertainty approach taken by the GUM is appealing as it focuses on what we know the result of the measurement, known influences on the measurement etc. and therefore fits within the general scientific framework and is not neatly separable from it: we cant think of measurements as a separate thing because the measurement is generally linked with whatever theory or theories are under test6. This aligns with the first four principles on the list. Statements about uncertainty are derived from what we know and their observable consequences can be tested just like any other scientific thingy (1), but we dont know everything (2) and estimates, along with the justifications for them, form the basis for ongoing improvement (3). The last two steps go together, but given that (4) and (5) are susceptible to the fallibility of uncertainty estimates (2) then the whole thing can be in constant flux (3).

Faced with this disquieting inexactitude the manuscript discusses the question of whether uncertainty estimates should aim to be precise or should aim to be safe (others say conservative or talk about an upper bound), a long standing debate. It obviously depends on the purpose which is what is said here. The wrinkle is that given the fallibility of estimates, we never know if we really are safe safe. In this respect, one might ask a different question: not what might reasonably happen, but what is physically possible7

The authors note (based on an earlier paper) that a safety approach would be appropriate in climate research used to inform decision making. All climate research ends up informing decision making (in some small way at least) so its perhaps important to separate two distinct use cases (although of course there may be many others). The first use case (related to (1)) is that uncertainty estimates are themselves a topic of research. In this case, precision is vital, as is an accounting of the different components so that different studies might be compared on a like for like basis. The second use case8 is the decision making case. Here, its important to consider the widest range of evidence and a safety approach may be more appropriate (See footnote 3 again). While individual studies can try and make this safe assessment, reports like IPCC are sometimes better placed to consider the totality of evidence though this means they sometimes end up doing their own analyses.

In this light, the use of GISTEMP to illustrate data uncertainty is only part of the story. While, as a single estimate, it clearly highlights the 5 philosophical theses, it would be interesting to extend the analysis to understand uncertainty in global temperature estimation more broadly. Where does the measurement process start and end How do we deal with the complexity of historical observations9 What do we do in the absence of vital information How do we combine information from different datasets What are reanalyses What even is global temperature Meta-analyses of global temperature can take which each have different underlying representations of the data and their uncertainties (or maybe not). Global temperature is also an interesting example, because increased understanding of uncertainty has led to a general increase in individual estimates, but at the same time, the expectations of data adequacy have become considerably more strict with some claiming that climate models and proxy information better constrain our understanding of long term temperature change than direct(ish) measurements do creating a philosophical conundrum10. Issues like this really stretch the concept of what a measurement might conceivably be in interesting ways particularly when we sit down to consider what the uncertainties in them might realistically be.

Anyway, one of those papers that leaves a person with lots to think about. Really quite wonderful.

-fin-

1. Between urgent reports of civil breakdown, impending war, and other matters not the kind of thing the brain needs at 5am this was a refreshing point of calm.
2. But now Im wondering if data is even the right word a sure sign Ive been staring at something for far too long a measurement is more than data. Data are just numbers and without units and an uncertainty estimate and a whole raft of theory, thats all a measurement is: a number.
3. Some adaptations to the GUM approach are proposed to give this thesis a more central role.
4. There is no better place. But it is just a starting place.
5. This dichotomy leaves out another way of looking at the issue, which is the statistical approach. The three overlap, but never quite match. It would be nice to see that approach worked out philosophically given the importance of statistics to e.g. climate datasets. Bayesian frameworks tend to be truth centred in some sense, which is distinct from the measurement centred approach in the GUM.
6. For example, SST biases in the early record associated with bucket measurements are correlated with the fluxes that are important for understanding changes in SST over long periods. The two can be separated its convenient to do so but it would be better in many ways to combine the two. This tension between generalist datasets that can be used as a consistent reference across many different analyses and the dedicated use of data to answer a very specific question is an interesting one. Fitness for purpose in one context might harm overall fitness defined more broadly. The different approaches can be seen by contrasting e.g. GISTEMP (essentially one product) with GPCC (dozens of products tailored for specific purposes).
7. If safety is of paramount importance, it might be better to ask what would cause X to exceed threshold Y How high can X get Do we understand the threshold Y well enough Its a useful exercise anyway. It also raises the question of what to do about outliers, which might be the result of distinct physical processes. In climate data, that physical process might simply be that the sailor noting the observation was distracted and missed out a minus sign hard to anticipate and model but one correspondent suggested that unusually high SSTs might be plumes of superheated water from submarine volcanic activity. Decisions about what to do with outliers, or data considered to be in gross error can affect long-term trends (its one of the things tested in the ERSST ensemble).
8. The collision between the two use cases can cause difficulties. An uncertainty estimate can be an improvement on previous work, larger than in previous work, and still, demonstrably, an underestimate in a broader assessment. Communicating all of this is a constant struggle.
9. The word observation is often substituted for measurement as if the two are synonymous. Observation is the looser term with less implied precision than measurement. Metrological studies of air temperature measurements suggest that difficulties become rather intractable when moving from the immediate environment of the sensor (e.g. the thermometer screen) and into the wider environment which is, of course, very hard to model. In such cases, its not clear what the measurand is. There is a rather ill defined notion of exposure that suggests some measurement sites are more representative of conditions across a wider area or region than others, but temperature can vary even between well sited screens placed metres apart. In such cases, we get the practical but perhaps unsatisfactory decision that the correct value of the air temperature is whatever a thermometer in a Stevenson Screen measures at that point and time, or the sea surface temperature is whatever a drifting buoy reports (or would have reported, had there been one) at that spot. Its an operational definition, but puts us outside the careful chain of custody approach recommended in the GUM. We end up, in practice making determinations of uncertainty that are a little bit type A (we rely on repeated or redundant measurements to assess uncertainty) and a little bit type B (we dont have exactly repeated measurements and have to bring in some theory or statistical model to pin it down). Such approaches fit neatly within a broader scientific approach estimated uncertainties have observable consequences for the variance of the data, for example, or the difference between temperatures at two nearby stations but less neatly within the GUM framework, one reason I see the GUM as a useful starting point rather than a definitive guide.
10. The assertion, often made, that the observations are (or were) wrong because they disagree with a model is silly and maybe even dangerous. It is the relationship between the observations, which are simple** historical facts, and the measurand that is usually out of kilter. But we need to bear in mind that the model and measurand will also be separated by uncertainty. That discrepancy between model-based and observation-based estimates therefore depends on uncertainty in everything we know about the processes involved and a bunch of things we probably dont. Great care needs to be exercised in declaring that a model is right when it conflicts with observations because the whole chain of evidence on which its claim to be right is based, is usually much longer, more indirect, and therefore more likely to sport a weak link. All models are wrong but some are useful. All observations are wrong, some are useful but at least they happened.

* That being said, I do like the idea of a Kantian meme form.

** Somewhere a historian is bursting into tears.

This profile of Vienna's green social housing is both inspiring, in its attitude to human dignity and environmental need, and depressing, in how radically it contrasts with the housing system in Ireland, which seems defined by exploitation, short-termism, cronyism, and incompetence

is secretly very concerned about . He has already reduced flights to the US, reduced Canadians visiting the US, reduced shipping from China to the US, reduced prices on stocks, so that people feel less wealthy, and buy less, and now he is stopping or slowing commercial aviation in , , lebanon and . And he is raising oil prices so that people consume less.

As a climate activist, I should be supporting Trump.

JP Morgan: Top ports require $768bn investment to handle climate change

Leading hubs need to do much more to adapt to rising sea levels, new report shows

Africa: Weaponizing Food Worsens Starvation: IPS Wars, economic shocks, planetary heating and aid cuts have worsened food crises in recent years, with almost 300 million people now threatened by starvation.

- Global Drought Outlook - "The OECDs Global Drought Outlook assesses how countries can strengthen drought management to adapt to a changing climate. It provides new insights into the rising human, environmental, and economic impacts of droughts and offers practical policy solutions to minimise losses, build long-term resilience, and support adaptation to a drier future." - OECD (2025), Global Drought Outlook: Trends, Impacts and Policies to Adapt to a Drier World, OECD Publishing, Paris,

The family I just met, flew up from Madrid, Spain to Katowice, Poland for a week, just to escape the 35 degree temperatures in Madrid. They had no idea what to do once they got here.

And in the process they made worse.

Along the Baltic route, it is expected to be so crowded this weekend, that one has to walk one's bike.

(7/7)

=> Depuis 1950, 70 % des oiseaux marins ont mondialement disparu + prdation naturelle/temptes/captures accidentelles/plastique mortel.

6/6 Learn more about CIELs engagement at the UNHRC and follow along as we advocate for bold, rights-based climate solutions.

2/ Key reports at will highlight how fuels injustice: SRClimate on & UN expert on extreme poverty & UNHumanRights on global cooperationTogether, they call for urgent, rights-based .

To improve the variables on mitigating cultures environmental neglect, the cultural echo chambers of social groups in which their environmentally harmful behaviours aren't challenged needs to be addressed. Whilst it's difficult speaking out when you're a minority voice, e.g.,, if you don't eat meat & you try your best to avoid fossil fueled transport, etc, we can use media TV, film, music, art, blogs, protest, etc, to challenge their unsustainable lifestyle norms.

The US has spent nearly US$1 trillion (RM4.2 trillion) dollars on disaster recovery and other climate-related needs over the 12 months ending May 1, according to an analysis released Monday by Bloomberg Intelligence. Thats 3% of GDP that people likely would have spent on goods and services theyd prefer to have, and amounts to a stealth tariff on consumer spending, analysts write

What you gonna do now

Make music

On

fascists

Flourish or flounder: How wildfires affect Boreal forest wildlife
There's an entire cycle of life that helps some wildlife thrive when the boreal forest burns, but experts say climate change and human activity have led to larger, more intense wildfires, exacerbating the negative effects on some species.

(10/10)
- lobbies numriques font croire influences positives Jeux vidos pour attention visuelle (cf 2012).
- fin de l'pidmie de (cf 1981 2002 2009).