European renewables capacity to see a 3-fold increase by 2050, yet fall short of climate goals, new Aurora report finds

Negative prices, market saturation, & grid congestion present major challenges to renewables development.
Portfolio diversification of market revenues, geographies, & technologies can mitigate risks

California wildfires threaten to widen inequality

The looming AMOC The utterly plausible case that makes London much colder

Climate activists paint on Charles Darwin's grave

The protest was in reaction to recent news that global temperatures in 2024 had exceeded 1.5 Celsius above the pre-industrial era for the first time.

18Million animals

(18 million chickens, pigs and cows killed: just as many as there are residents of the Netherlands)

On that very small piece called the Netherlands

driven beastly through the slaughterhouse

no worthy treatment there

18 million animals

On that very small piece called the Netherlands

They will be packed for the supermarket

and they will determine their value there

2024 marks the hottest year since 1850, with scientists using ice cores and marine sediment to reveal that todays climate is likely warmer than in the past 120,000 years.

And now, the moment youve all been waiting for

, we looked at different ways of hierarchically grouping global temperature datasets to get a reasonable best estimate and uncertainty range. There were three principle ways to do that grouping: by SST data set, by LSAT dataset, and by INERTPolation method (the errant capitalisation will have a purposed later).

I put these different groupings through my code for calculating an ensemble of ensembles and got the following summary statistics. I show here the annual means and a lowess smoothed series to highlight any differences in shorter and longer term behaviour.

First plot shows the means of the three ensembles and, as you can see, there is very little difference between them, so I wont analyse this in detail.

Next up the standard deviation of the ensemble. There are some small differences here which are interesting.

The SST ensemble has a higher standard deviation in the 1880-1915 window possibly reflective of differences between marine datasets around this period. The LSAT ensemble has a larger standard deviation in the post 1930 period. Even though the differences are visible, they are still relatively small. The rule of thumb is that uncertainties in uncertainties are usually worse than 10% so were in that fuzzy zone where we can maybe explain why we see differences, but at the same time, we maybe dont need to worry about them too much.

So, after all that, not much difference. This is a good thing though. It suggests that were not overly sensitive to reasonable choices about how to split up the ensemble.

We can also compare to what would happen if we just treated each dataset equally, as if they were all independent.

It doesnt make much difference to the mean, but the uncertainty

Theres a big difference there, with equal weighting generally coming in with a lower estimate of the uncertainty vs all the other combinations. This partly comes from burying DCENT in a mound of datasets that, for all their differences, are quite similar particularly in the early 20th century. I think this is a vote in favour of a more complex weighting.

-fin-

#climate #climateChange #globalTemperature

2025 Policy spotlight: whats next for EU nature and climate action

18 miljoen dieren
Op dat hele kleine stukje nederland
Die drijf je vlot de slachtbank door
Die laat je niet in hun waarde
18 miljoen dieren
Op dat hele kleine stukje nederland
Die moeten verpakt de supermarkt in
Die bepalen daar hun waarde

Op beestachtige wijze

General advice

Store nothing on other people's computer systems like the cloud or something that promises you privacy and safety and ask you money for doing so

Safeguard things important to you on an external device not ever connected to the so-called free internet

It is not as free and worldwide as you might think it is anymore if ever

Instagram X Facebook = end of privacy and safety

on the www

By planting native species that will thrive in the Amazon, the Brazilian company Mombak hopes to restore credibility to a scandal-ridden carbon market at a crucial time for the warming planet.

So the UK govt, at a time when they say they can't help their poor citizens and are planning to decrease access to disability benefits, decided we *must* build our own super AI computer.
So much for net zero.
Just waiting for the next round of oil and gas licenses and fracking to fuel it.

A secret weapon in agricultures climate fight: Ants

Ants yes, ants could protect apples, nuts, cocoa, and other beloved crops from disease and climate change

When is weather affected by climate change : NPR

2024 was the hottest year yet. Will 2025 be even hotter

Climate change scepticism almost extinct from UK national press

But newspapers are instead increasingly arguing against the need to take action to slow climate change.

set to fuel surge in new US gas power plants

> The US is on the cusp of a natural gas power plant construction boom, as Big Tech turns to fossil fuels to meet the huge electricity needs of the revolution putting climate targets in peril.

> As many as 80 new gas-fired power plants will be built in the by 2030, said energy consultancy Enverus, adding 46 gigawatts of capacity the size of the electricity system in Norway

Much of Australia enjoys the same Mediterranean climate as LA. When it comes to bushfires, that doesnt bode well

A new study looking at some of the denizens of the world's freshwater habitats has found that a number of species are at risk of extinction.

Compound coastal flooding in San Francisco Bay under climate change

Best look to the skies. We aren't alone. The Others are more concerned about Earth than humans. happens over thousands, even, millions of years. Human activity, since around 1760, has accelerated it, exponentially. Add nukes and we've got The Others attention.

Want to believe in religion over Non Human Intelligence (NHI/ET) Do so at our peril.

Finland's climate warming faster than global average

Temperatures in Finland were last year on average 3.4 degrees warmer than in the pre-industrial era, and 2024 was the fourth warmest year on record

Don't fight fair, they don't deserve it.

's

I've now been working at the Swedish Climate Secretariat (NGO) for a few years. I've jotted down some things I wish everyone knew about climate and climate issues. Feel free to take a look and see if you find something new for you.

I wish to write more - so hopefully there's more to come...

All the best,
/Einar

(originally in swedish)

So, do you think the Yokels will start killing people on 's orders

I do. History is repeating itself.

This time, stop them, permanently.
Otherwise...

...And, the homegrown need to be incarcerated for the rest of their lives...

...Which won't be long because of .

In this 'IWE in 2 min' video, Laura Michler offers a brief yet insightful introduction to the Sustainable AI Lab and her role as lab manager. The full video is now on YouTube:
youtu.be/KdsHAYnuOak

sometime things are easy

and proof enough anywhere in the world

give people (and most always men)way too much power and money

they will take your money and will control deceive and rape you

you are made dependent on those freaks anytime anywhere

Id like to read more fiction exploring this year & would love some recommendations. In the past couple years Ive read Parable of the Sower, How Beautiful We Were, and Something New Under the Sun. (I loved the first two, the last one was meh.) Suggestions

sometimes things are easy

give the guy no chance to control you

stop using X and do not take money of guys like him

in every way

sometimes things are easy

if everybody stops facebook the guy has nothing to control nobody

in every way

Dont Bother Going Vegan to Save the Planet. Do This Instead Opinion

15/01/25 18:30 Using Open-Source Tools to Track Climate Change
Book:

Michael Winston Dales, Cambridge University Computer Lab and Cambridge Conservation Initiative
discusses & in biodiversity & forest restoration & challenges with todays tools and data.

"PM plans to 'unleash AI' across UK to boost growth"

OK, 2 questions to start with:

1. What will the carbon footprint be

2. How do I opt out of having my medical records used for training data

I'm sure you can think of other questions.

Looks like Labour have been rereading Wilson's 'White Heat of Technology' speech.

Why am I getting nervous

This struck a cord with me as since the Trump train wreck and Duttons shift to Trumpian politics, I have been less engaged with the news. Its time for Albo and tribe to start with some serious policy that shows hope for the young.

Human-caused , human ignitions (temperate shrublands, southern California), unnatural suppression (temperate forests), and (tropical forests) are increasing . Solutions: cut pollution, halt human ignitions, use natural fire (temperate forests), halt .

Human-caused caused most of the increase in area burned by in summer in northern and central California forests, 1996-2021, and research by M. Turco, J. Abatzoglou, colleagues, in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA

Vegetation, notably coastal vegetation, can play a very important role in mitigating effects by providing protection and carbon burial. But, the right type in the right place is critical because the dynamic can be complex. In the case of Rea , for example, emissions may offset most of the carbon burial due to process.

- Norway on track to be first to go all-electric